Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.944980 11.670498 13.555942 15.762490 18.267070 21.014537 24.249199
2025-02-02 7.423471 9.807215 12.672180 16.337409 20.866929 26.244098 33.069726
2025-02-09 5.832090 8.534605 12.055933 16.903850 23.317191 31.414711 42.300481
2025-02-16 4.549282 7.307404 11.170989 16.842519 24.794754 35.366202 50.262894
2025-02-23 3.526949 6.186705 10.172189 16.374477 25.533807 38.271777 56.964741
2025-03-02 2.724887 5.205797 9.170452 15.686848 25.779421 40.399061 62.643197
2025-03-09 2.234790 4.615198 8.645900 15.598056 26.819645 43.651039 70.054498
2025-03-16 1.816538 4.053041 8.060990 15.302268 27.457283 46.292844 76.687386
2025-03-23 1.639734 3.899692 8.141238 16.095342 29.867300 51.760158 87.871438
2025-03-30 1.409140 3.587772 7.881128 16.250595 31.211094 55.619304 96.780964
2025-04-06 1.202983 3.279770 7.575160 16.271719 32.302523 59.114346 105.288563
2025-04-13 1.025179 2.992903 7.261726 16.229053 33.255568 62.414591 113.638202
2025-04-20 0.973703 3.001576 7.569192 17.442899 36.621912 70.065272 129.705791
2025-04-27 0.890008 2.913217 7.660864 18.245713 39.312326 76.757308 144.602507
2025-05-04 0.806655 2.805909 7.693901 18.930218 41.833525 83.309317 159.621688
2025-05-11 0.688560 2.571239 7.397191 18.884050 42.936294 87.410382 170.649295
2025-05-18 0.564548 2.281485 6.917188 18.375259 43.068302 89.749453 178.708061
2025-05-25 0.450904 1.984915 6.362347 17.618983 42.613903 90.954071 184.785897
2025-06-01 0.383375 1.817873 6.109853 17.521780 43.501782 94.703482 195.606862
2025-06-08 0.318376 1.635756 5.780842 17.195492 43.864038 97.454313 204.717525
2025-06-15 0.300062 1.625381 5.934318 18.070974 46.899273 105.547987 224.091888
2025-06-22 0.263390 1.527938 5.815443 18.242300 48.380872 110.648536 238.054193
2025-06-29 0.227853 1.421124 5.647890 18.265616 49.525573 115.130707 251.034319